ABSTRACT:
India's reputation as the world's leading supplier of generic drugs, coupled with its renowned affordability in vaccines and generic medications, highlights its pharmaceutical industry's prominence. Ranked third in pharmaceutical manufacturing by volume, this sector has experienced impressive growth, boasting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.43% over the past nine years. Integral components of India's medicinal landscape include general medicines, over-the-counter specifics, bulk medicines, vaccines, contract exploration and manufacturing, bio-similar, and biologics. This paper investigates the stock performance of four prominent pharmaceutical entities traded on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) capital market: Lupin Limited, Cipla Limited, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited, and Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited. Utilizing historical stock price data from April 2013 to December 2019 sourced from Yahoo Finance, the analysis employs various statistical methodologies such as descriptive statistics, the money flow index (MFI), and the beta index. Additionally, forecasting is conducted using the Automatic Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model2. Findings indicate that Dr Reddy's laboratory shares demonstrated superior performance compared to their counterparts, with Lupin Limited, Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited, and Cipla Limited following suit. These insights furnish investors with valuable information for making well-informed decisions regarding stock holding, purchasing, or divestment, grounded in specific signals derived from the statistical indices utilized in the analysis. The primary objective of this study is to assess the profitability of the Indian pharmaceutical industry, offering insights into the financial efficacy of companies for both investors and society at large. By forecasting the economic status of these entities for specific periods, the research endeavours to assist management in pinpointing areas necessitating resource optimization and improvement.